Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Outlook and Forecast

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033

Published Date : 2023-03-19

Updated On : 2024-01-27

Pages : 163

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Outlook

Thelansis’s “Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033" covers disease overview, epidemiology, drug utilization, prescription share analysis, competitive landscape, clinical practice, regulatory landscape, patient share, market uptake, market forecast, and key market insights under the potential Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 treatment modalities options for eight major markets (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China).

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is a retrovirus that infects humans and is the primary cause of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). It belongs to the Lentivirus genus of the Retroviridae family. HIV-1 is one of the two major types of HIV, the other being HIV-2. HIV-1 is transmitted by exchanging body fluids, including blood, semen, vaginal fluids, rectal fluids, and breast milk. The most common transmission routes include unprotected sexual contact with an infected person, sharing needles or syringes with an infected person, and transmission from an infected mother to her child during childbirth or breastfeeding. Once the virus enters the body, it primarily targets and infects CD4+ T cells, a type of white blood cell crucial for the immune system's proper functioning. As the virus replicates, it progressively destroys these CD4+ T cells, weakening the immune system and making the person more susceptible to opportunistic infections and certain cancers. The course of HIV infection is divided into several stages:

  1. Acute HIV infection: This occurs within a few weeks after the initial infection and may cause flu-like symptoms such as headache, fever, sore throat, swollen lymph nodes, and rash.
  2. Clinical latency: After the initial stage, HIV remains in the body but may not cause noticeable symptoms for an extended period. However, the virus continues to replicate and damage the immune system during this time.
  3. Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS): If HIV is left untreated, the immune system becomes severely damaged, and the person is diagnosed with AIDS. At this stage, the individual becomes highly susceptible to opportunistic infections and certain cancers.

HIV can be managed effectively with antiretroviral therapy (ART), a combination of medications that helps suppress viral replication and maintain a healthy immune system. While ART does not cure HIV, it allows people living with the virus to lead relatively healthy lives and significantly reduces the risk of transmitting it to others.

  • The estimated number of HIV infections in the USA was 12.6 per 100,000.

Geography Covered:

North America- the United States and Canada

Europe- EU5 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom)

Other countries- Japan & China

Study Period: 2023-2033

Current Clinical Practice and Treatment Algorithm

This section of the study covers country-specific current clinical practice, the standard of care, and significant limitations around addressing the unmet needs. Retrospective analysis and bench-marking of clinical study outcomes are presented in terms of Pre-treatment & post-treatment clinical and demographic patient characteristics. Essentially, this section will cover the evolution of the current competitive landscape and its impact on the future treatment paradigm.

KOL Insights:

KOLs across 8 MM markets from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs

Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

- Data Inputs with sourcing

- Market Event and Product Event

- Country-specific Forecast Model

- Market uptake and patient share uptake

- Attribute Analysis

- Analog Analysis

- Disease burden and pricing scenario

- Summary and Insights

NPV/ IRR Calculator-

Optimization of cash flow/ revenue flow concerning all fixed and variable investments throughout the product development process. The rate of return on an investment is a critical indicator to ensure the profitability and break-even of the project.

Competitive Landscape:

The competitive landscape includes country-specific approved as well as pipeline therapies. Any asset/product-specific designation or review such as Orphan drug designation, Fast track, Priority Review, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, Rare Pediatric Disease Designation, and Accelerated Approval are tracked and supplemented with analyst commentary.

Clinical Trial Assessment-

Detailed clinical trial data analysis and critical product positioning include trial design, primary outcomes, secondary outcomes, dosing and schedules, inclusion and exclusion criteria, recruitment status and essentially covers the reported adverse events. Majorly the trial analysis helps determine the potential of the critical assets and their probable filing and launch date.

Unmet Medical Needs Overview-

This report presents the most important clinical unmet needs in the treatment, according to Thelansis research and analysis. Other essential unmet needs identified through our study include decreased cost burden on patients, improved administration convenience, and improved patient compliance.

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Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Competitive Landscape

S. no Asset Company Stage
1 DTG + 3TC ViiV Healthcare Phase 3
2 DOR/ISL Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC Phase 3
3 Biktarvy Gilead Sciences Phase 3
4 VM-1500A-LAI Viriom Phase 3
5 Ibalizumab TaiMed Biologics Inc. Phase 3
6 PRO 140 CytoDyn, Inc. Phase 3
7 EBT-101 Excision BioTherapeutics, Inc. Phase 1/2
8 STP0404 (Pirmitegravir) ST Pharm Co., Ltd. Phase 2
9 UB-421 UBP Greater China (Shanghai) Co., Ltd Phase 2
10 Triptorelin Immune System Regulation AB Phase 2

Continued...

KOLs across 8 MM market from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs.

COUNTRY No. Of KOLs
USA 17
GERMANY 4
UK 4
SPAIN 3
FRANCE 2
ITALY 3
JAPAN 3
CHINA 4

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

Data Inputs with sourcing, Market Event, Product Event, Country specific Forecast Model, Market uptake and patient share uptake, Attribute Analysis, Analog Analysis, Disease burden, and pricing scenario, Summary, and Insights.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast

1.       Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) – Key Findings Summary

         1.1.    Clinical findings
                     1.1.1. Disease overview
                     1.1.2. Therapeutic practices
                     1.1.3. Future outlook
         1.2.    Commercial findings
                     1.2.1. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) market scenario 2023
                     1.2.2. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) scenario 2028
                     1.2.3. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) market scenario 2033

2. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Overview

         2.1.    Disease Introduction
         2.2.    Pathophysiology
         2.3.    Signs and Symptoms
         2.4.    Risk Factors
         2.5.    Etiology
         2.6.    Classification
         2.7.    Pathogenesis
         2.8.    Diagnosis
         2.9.    Complications
         2.10. Treatment Algorithm
                     2.10.1.    Treatment in US (guidelines)
                     2.10.2.    Treatment in EU-5 (guidelines)
                     2.10.3.    Treatment in Japan (guidelines)
                     2.10.4.    Treatment in China (guidelines)
         2.11. Treatment Goals for Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
         2.12. Referral Patterns
                     2.12.1.    Referral Scenario in US
                     2.12.2.    Referral Scenario in EU-5
                     2.12.3.    Referral Scenario in Japan
                     2.12.4.    Referral Scenario in China
         2.13. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Prognosis
         2.14. Healthcare burden
                     2.14.1.    Healthcare burden in US
                     2.14.2.    Healthcare burden in EU-5
                     2.14.3.    Healthcare burden in Japan
                     2.14.4.    Healthcare burden in China
         2.15.  Unmet Needs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) management
         2.16.  Market Opportunity for Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
         2.17. KOL Comments on current and upcoming/expected treatment practices in Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)

3.       Epidemiology

         3.1.    Epidemiology Overview
         3.2.    Epidemiology by Geography
                     3.2.1. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Epidemiology in US (2023-2033)
                             3.2.1.1.              Incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
                             3.2.1.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.1.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.1.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.2. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Epidemiology in EU-5 (2023-2033)
                             3.2.2.1.              Incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
                             3.2.2.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.2.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.2.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.3. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Epidemiology in Japan (2023-2033)
                             3.2.3.1.              Incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
                             3.2.3.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.3.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.3.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.4. Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Epidemiology in China (2023-2033)
                             3.2.4.1.              Incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
                             3.2.4.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.4.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.4.4.              Epidemiology Trends
         3.3.    Epidemiology Trends (World-wide)

4.       Market Outlook

         4.1.    US Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.1.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.1.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.1.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.1.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.1.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.1.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.2.    UK Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.2.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.2.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.2.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.2.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.2.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.2.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.3.    France Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.3.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.3.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.3.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.3.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.3.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.3.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.4.    Germany Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.4.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.4.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.4.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.4.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.4.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.4.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.5.    Italy Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.5.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.5.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.5.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.5.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.5.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.5.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.6.    Spain Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.6.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.6.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.6.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.6.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.6.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.6.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.7.    Japan Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.7.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.7.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.7.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.7.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.7.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.7.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.8.    China Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.8.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.8.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.8.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.8.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.8.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.8.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.9.    Key Expected Milestones (world-wide) Impacting the Market

5.       Competitive Landscape

         5.1.    Pipeline Therapies Overview
                     5.1.1. Phase III Therapies
                                      5.1.1.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.1.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.1.3.                     Approval Timeline
                                      5.1.1.4.                     Likelihood of approval
                                      5.1.1.5.                     Expected Product Positioning
                             5.1.1.2.              All other Phase III Therapies …..
                             5.1.1.3.              Attribute Analysis of Phase III molecules
                     5.1.2.  Phase II and Phase I/II Therapies
                                      5.1.2.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.2.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.2.3.                     Approval Timelines
                     5.1.3. List of active Pre-clinical Therapies
                                      5.1.3.1.                     Status in Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
                                      5.1.3.2.                     Company positioning
                             5.1.3.2.              All other pre-clinical therapies
                     5.1.4. List of Inactive/discontinued assets
                             5.1.4.1.              Business impact of discontinuations on current pipeline
                     5.1.5. Potential winners from Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Pipeline
                             5.1.5.1.              Potential Blockbusters across the pipeline

6.       Regulatory/Approval Scenario

         6.1.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in US
                     6.1.1. Policy Framework
                     6.1.2. Payer Expectations
         6.2.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in UK
                     6.2.1. Policy Framework
                     6.2.2. Payer Expectations
         6.3.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in France
                     6.3.1. Policy Framework
                     6.3.2. Payer Expectations
         6.4.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Germany
                     6.4.1. Policy Framework
                     6.4.2. Payer Expectations
         6.5.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Italy
                     6.5.1. Policy Framework
                     6.5.2. Payer Expectations
         6.6.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Spain
                     6.6.1. Policy Framework
                     6.6.2. Payer Expectations
         6.7.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in Japan
                     6.7.1. Policy Framework
                     6.7.2. Payer Expectations
         6.8.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in China
                     6.8.1. Policy Framework
                     6.8.2. Payer Expectations

7.       Clinical Trial Assessment – Current and Future Paradigm

         7.1.    Distribution of Primary Endpoints across trials
         7.2.    Distribution of Secondary Endpoints across trials
         7.3.    Evolution and acceptance of surrogate endpoints
         7.4.    Key Investigator initiated trials
         7.5.    Attrition analysis
                     7.5.1. Suspended/Discontinued Assets
                     7.5.2. Failed Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.3. Terminated Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.4. Withdrawn Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
         7.6.    Trial enrollment scenario and challenges
         7.7.    Clinical Trial Guidance (across geographies)

8.       Thelansis Commentary

         8.1.    Key Unmet needs in Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1)
         8.2.    Possible Best-case Clinical Trial Strategies
         8.3.    Possible Best Case Targeted Product Profile (TPP)
         8.4.    Possible Best-case Market positioning strategies
         8.5.    Possible Best-case Market Access Strategies
         8.6.    Possible Best-case LCM Strategies
         8.7.    Overall View on Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) Market in Dollar Value

9.       Report Methodology

         9.1.    Secondary research
         9.2.    Primary research
         9.3.    Data collation
         9.4.    Insight Generation

10.   About Thelansis

         10.1.    Our Capabilities
         10.2.    Our Services
         10.3.    Our Contacts
         10.4.    Disclaimer