Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Outlook and Forecast

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033

Published Date : 2023-07-21

Updated On : 2024-05-28

Pages : 157

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Outlook

Thelansis’s “Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2023 To 2033" covers disease overview, epidemiology, drug utilization, prescription share analysis, competitive landscape, clinical practice, regulatory landscape, patient share, market uptake, market forecast, and key market insights under the potential Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation treatment modalities options for eight major markets (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China).

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Overview

Valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) is a condition where AF occurs in the presence of mitral stenosis or mechanical valve prosthesis. On the other hand, non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) refers to an irregular and often rapid heartbeat in the heart's atria. However, unlike valvular AF, it is not associated with significant heart valve issues. NVAF is the most prevalent form of atrial fibrillation. NVAF can have various nonvalvular causes, such as exposure to heart stimulants like alcohol, caffeine, or tobacco, sleep apnea, high blood pressure, lung problems, hyperthyroidism, or severe illness-related stress such as pneumonia. NVAF symptoms include discomfort in the chest, a fluttering feeling in the chest, palpitations, dizziness or near-fainting sensations, labored breathing, and fatigue. Atrial fibrillation is a common heart rhythm disorder that primarily affects the atria and significantly raises the risk of thromboembolic events, particularly ischemic stroke and systemic embolization. NVAF is a substantial risk factor for severe and potentially fatal ischemic strokes, contributing to approximately 15% of all ischemic strokes and up to 30% of strokes in individuals in their 80s. In the European Union, Dabigatran etexilate (Pradaxa) has received approval to prevent stroke and systemic embolism in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) who have one or more risk factors.

Geography Covered:

North America- the United States and Canada

Europe- EU5 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom)

Other countries- Japan & China

Study Period: 2023-2033

Current Clinical Practice and Treatment Algorithm

This section of the study covers country-specific current clinical practice, the standard of care, and significant limitations around addressing the unmet needs. Retrospective analysis and bench-marking of clinical study outcomes are presented in terms of Pre-treatment & post-treatment clinical and demographic patient characteristics. Essentially, this section will cover the evolution of the current competitive landscape and its impact on the future treatment paradigm.

KOL Insights:

KOLs across 8 MM markets from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs

Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

- Data Inputs with sourcing

- Market Event and Product Event

- Country-specific Forecast Model

- Market uptake and patient share uptake

- Attribute Analysis

- Analog Analysis

- Disease burden and pricing scenario

- Summary and Insights

NPV/ IRR Calculator-

Optimization of cash flow/ revenue flow concerning all fixed and variable investments throughout the product development process. The rate of return on an investment is a critical indicator to ensure the profitability and break-even of the project.

Competitive Landscape:

The competitive landscape includes country-specific approved as well as pipeline therapies. Any asset/product-specific designation or review such as Orphan drug designation, Fast track, Priority Review, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, Rare Pediatric Disease Designation, and Accelerated Approval are tracked and supplemented with analyst commentary.

Clinical Trial Assessment-

Detailed clinical trial data analysis and critical product positioning include trial design, primary outcomes, secondary outcomes, dosing and schedules, inclusion and exclusion criteria, recruitment status and essentially covers the reported adverse events. Majorly the trial analysis helps determine the potential of the critical assets and their probable filing and launch date.

Unmet Medical Needs Overview-

This report presents the most important clinical unmet needs in the treatment, according to Thelansis research and analysis. Other essential unmet needs identified through our study include decreased cost burden on patients, improved administration convenience, and improved patient compliance.

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Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Competitive Landscape

S. no Asset Company Stage
1 Dabigatran Etexilate Capsules Alembic Pharmaceuticals Phase 3
2 Betrixaban Portola Pharmaceuticals Phase 2

KOLs across 8 MM market from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs.

COUNTRY No. Of KOLs
USA 17
GERMANY 4
UK 4
SPAIN 3
FRANCE 2
ITALY 3
JAPAN 3
CHINA 4

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

Data Inputs with sourcing, Market Event, Product Event, Country specific Forecast Model, Market uptake and patient share uptake, Attribute Analysis, Analog Analysis, Disease burden, and pricing scenario, Summary, and Insights.

Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast

1.  Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) – Key Findings Summary

         1.1.    Clinical findings
                     1.1.1. Disease overview
                     1.1.2. Therapeutic practices
                     1.1.3. Future outlook
         1.2.    Commercial findings
                     1.2.1. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) market scenario 2023
                     1.2.2. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) market scenario 2028
                     1.2.3. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) market scenario 2033

2. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Overview

         2.1.    Disease Introduction
         2.2.    Pathophysiology
         2.3.    Signs and Symptoms
         2.4.    Risk Factors
         2.5.    Etiology
         2.6.    Classification
         2.7.    Pathogenesis
         2.8.    Diagnosis
         2.9.    Complications
         2.10. Treatment Algorithm
                     2.10.1.    Treatment in US (guidelines)
                     2.10.2.    Treatment in EU-5 (guidelines)
                     2.10.3.    Treatment in Japan (guidelines)
                     2.10.4.    Treatment in China (guidelines)
         2.11. Treatment Goals for Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
         2.12. Referral Patterns
                     2.12.1.    Referral Scenario in US
                     2.12.2.    Referral Scenario in EU-5
                     2.12.3.    Referral Scenario in Japan
                     2.12.4.    Referral Scenario in China
         2.13. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Prognosis
         2.14. Healthcare burden
                     2.14.1.    Healthcare burden in US
                     2.14.2.    Healthcare burden in EU-5
                     2.14.3.    Healthcare burden in Japan
                     2.14.4.    Healthcare burden in China
         2.15.  Unmet Needs in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) management
         2.16.  Market Opportunity for Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
         2.17. KOL Comments on current and upcoming/expected treatment practices in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)

3.       Epidemiology

         3.1.    Epidemiology Overview
         3.2.    Epidemiology by Geography
                     3.2.1. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Epidemiology in US (2023-2033)
                             3.2.1.1.              Incidence of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
                             3.2.1.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.1.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.1.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.2. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Epidemiology in EU-5 (2023-2033)
                             3.2.2.1.              Incidence of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
                             3.2.2.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.2.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.2.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.3. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Epidemiology in Japan (2023-2033)
                             3.2.3.1.              Incidence of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
                             3.2.3.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.3.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.3.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.4. Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Epidemiology in China (2023-2033)
                             3.2.4.1.              Incidence of Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
                             3.2.4.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.4.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.4.4.              Epidemiology Trends
         3.3.    Epidemiology Trends (World-wide)

4.       Market Outlook

         4.1.    US Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.1.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.1.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.1.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.1.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.1.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.1.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.2.    UK Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.2.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.2.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.2.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.2.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.2.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.2.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.3.    France Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.3.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.3.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.3.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.3.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.3.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.3.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.4.    Germany Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.4.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.4.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.4.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.4.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.4.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.4.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.5.    Italy Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.5.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.5.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.5.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.5.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.5.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.5.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.6.    Spain Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.6.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.6.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.6.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.6.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.6.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.6.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.7.    Japan Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.7.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.7.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.7.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.7.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.7.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.7.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.8.    China Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market Forecast 2023-2033
                     4.8.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.8.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.8.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.8.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.8.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.8.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.9.    Key Expected Milestones (world-wide) Impacting the Market

5.       Competitive Landscape

         5.1.    Pipeline Therapies Overview
                     5.1.1. Phase III Therapies
                                      5.1.1.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.1.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.1.3.                     Approval Timeline
                                      5.1.1.4.                     Likelihood of approval
                                      5.1.1.5.                     Expected Product Positioning
                             5.1.1.2.              All other Phase III Therapies …..
                             5.1.1.3.              Attribute Analysis of Phase III molecules
                     5.1.2.  Phase II and Phase I/II Therapies
                                      5.1.2.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.2.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.2.3.                     Approval Timelines
                     5.1.3. List of active Pre-clinical Therapies
                                      5.1.3.1.                     Status in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
                                      5.1.3.2.                     Company positioning
                             5.1.3.2.              All other pre-clinical therapies
                     5.1.4. List of Inactive/discontinued assets
                             5.1.4.1.              Business impact of discontinuations on current pipeline
                     5.1.5. Potential winners from Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Pipeline
                             5.1.5.1.              Potential Blockbusters across the pipeline

6.       Regulatory/Approval Scenario

         6.1.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in US
                     6.1.1. Policy Framework
                     6.1.2. Payer Expectations
         6.2.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in UK
                     6.2.1. Policy Framework
                     6.2.2. Payer Expectations
         6.3.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in France
                     6.3.1. Policy Framework
                     6.3.2. Payer Expectations
         6.4.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Germany
                     6.4.1. Policy Framework
                     6.4.2. Payer Expectations
         6.5.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Italy
                     6.5.1. Policy Framework
                     6.5.2. Payer Expectations
         6.6.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Spain
                     6.6.1. Policy Framework
                     6.6.2. Payer Expectations
         6.7.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in Japan
                     6.7.1. Policy Framework
                     6.7.2. Payer Expectations
         6.8.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in China
                     6.8.1. Policy Framework
                     6.8.2. Payer Expectations

7.       Clinical Trial Assessment – Current and Future Paradigm

         7.1.    Distribution of Primary Endpoints across trials
         7.2.    Distribution of Secondary Endpoints across trials
         7.3.    Evolution and acceptance of surrogate endpoints
         7.4.    Key Investigator initiated trials
         7.5.    Attrition analysis
                     7.5.1. Suspended/Discontinued Assets
                     7.5.2. Failed Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.3. Terminated Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.4. Withdrawn Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
         7.6.    Trial enrollment scenario and challenges
         7.7.    Clinical Trial Guidance (across geographies)

8.       Thelansis Commentary

         8.1.    Key Unmet needs in Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF)
         8.2.    Possible Best-case Clinical Trial Strategies
         8.3.    Possible Best Case Targeted Product Profile (TPP)
         8.4.    Possible Best-case Market positioning strategies
         8.5.    Possible Best-case Market Access Strategies
         8.6.    Possible Best-case LCM Strategies
         8.7.    Overall View on Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation (NVAF) Market in Dollar Value

9.       Report Methodology

         9.1.    Secondary research
         9.2.    Primary research
         9.3.    Data collation
         9.4.    Insight Generation

10.   About Thelansis

         10.1.    Our Capabilities
         10.2.    Our Services
         10.3.    Our Contacts
         10.4.    Disclaimer