Herpes Zoster (Shingles) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2022 To 2032

Herpes Zoster Market Outlook and Forecast

Herpes Zoster (Shingles) – Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2022 To 2032

Published Date : 2022-08-08

Updated On : 2023-07-01

Pages : 159

Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Outlook

Thelansis’s “Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Outlook, Epidemiology, Competitive Landscape, and Market Forecast Report – 2022 To 2032" covers disease overview, epidemiology, drug utilization, prescription share analysis, competitive landscape, clinical practice, regulatory landscape, patient share, market uptake, market forecast, and key market insights under the potential Herpes Zoster (Shingles) treatment modalities options for eight major markets (USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and China).

Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Overview

Herpes zoster, commonly referred to as shingles, is a viral ailment stemming from the reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus, which persists in a dormant state within the sensory ganglia of cranial or dorsal root nerves after an earlier varicella infection. Varicella, known as chickenpox, predominates in children, whereas herpes zoster manifests in adults and the elderly. Upon reactivation, the virus replicates within neuronal cell bodies, with ensuing virions being shed from these cells. These virions travel along the nerve fibers to the region of skin innervated by the associated ganglion. Cutaneous inflammation and blistering result from viral activity within the skin. The pain linked to zoster arises due to the inflammation of affected nerves in tandem with viral presence. Prominent triggers for herpes zoster encompass:

  • Emotional stress
  • Administration of immunosuppressant medications
  • Acute or chronic medical conditions
  • Exposure to the virus
  • Presence of malignancy

Cutaneous lesions associated with herpes zoster prompt a specific proliferation of T-cells targeted against the Varicella-zoster virus. Furthermore, the production of interferon-alpha contributes to the resolution of the infection. In individuals with a competent immune system, the appearance and elevation of specific antibodies (IgG, IgM, and IgA) occur more swiftly during reactivation (herpes zoster) compared to the primary infection, leading to enduring and intensified cell-mediated immunity against the varicella-zoster virus. The infection unfolds through three distinct phases:

  1. The pre-eruptive stage involves abnormal skin sensations or pain in the dermatome. This stage surfaces at least 48 hours before the emergence of visible lesions. Concurrently, the individual might experience headaches, general discomfort, and sensitivity to light (photophobia).
  2. The acute eruptive phase is characterized by the appearance of vesicles and the symptoms noted in the preeruptive phase. The lesions begin as macules and rapidly progress into painful vesicles. These vesicles often rupture, forming ulcers that eventually crust over. This phase sees the highest infectivity until the lesions dry out. Pain is particularly severe during this stage and might not respond effectively to conventional analgesics. This phase can span 2 to 4 weeks, yet the pain may persist beyond this.
  3. Chronic infection entails recurring pain lasting beyond 4 weeks. In addition to the pain, patients encounter paresthesias, electric shock-like sensations, and abnormal sensations (dysesthesias). This debilitating pain can endure for 12 months or more. Antiviral medications such as acyclovir at a dosage of 800 mg administered five times daily for five days, valacyclovir at 1 gm thrice daily for five days, and famciclovir at 500 mg thrice daily for seven days are employed in the treatment of herpes zoster. Furthermore, topical antibiotic creams such as mupirocin or soframycin aid in the prevention of secondary bacterial infections.

Geography Covered:

North America- the United States and Canada

Europe- EU5 (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom)

Other countries- Japan & China

Study Period: 2022-2032

Current Clinical Practice and Treatment Algorithm

This section of the study covers country-specific current clinical practice, the standard of care, and significant limitations around addressing the unmet needs. Retrospective analysis and bench-marking of clinical study outcomes are presented in terms of Pre-treatment & post-treatment clinical and demographic patient characteristics. Essentially, this section will cover the evolution of the current competitive landscape and its impact on the future treatment paradigm.

KOL Insights:

KOLs across 8 MM markets from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs

Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

- Data Inputs with sourcing

- Market Event and Product Event

- Country-specific Forecast Model

- Market uptake and patient share uptake

- Attribute Analysis

- Analog Analysis

- Disease burden and pricing scenario

- Summary and Insights

NPV/ IRR Calculator-

Optimization of cash flow/ revenue flow concerning all fixed and variable investments throughout the product development process. The rate of return on an investment is a critical indicator to ensure the profitability and break-even of the project.

Competitive Landscape:

The competitive landscape includes country-specific approved as well as pipeline therapies. Any asset/product-specific designation or review such as Orphan drug designation, Fast track, Priority Review, Breakthrough Therapy Designation, Rare Pediatric Disease Designation, and Accelerated Approval are tracked and supplemented with analyst commentary.

Clinical Trial Assessment-

Detailed clinical trial data analysis and critical product positioning include trial design, primary outcomes, secondary outcomes, dosing and schedules, inclusion and exclusion criteria, recruitment status and essentially covers the reported adverse events. Majorly the trial analysis helps determine the potential of the critical assets and their probable filing and launch date.

Unmet Medical Needs Overview-

This report presents the most important clinical unmet needs in the treatment, according to Thelansis research and analysis. Other essential unmet needs identified through our study include decreased cost burden on patients, improved administration convenience, and improved patient compliance.

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Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Competitive Landscape

S. no Asset Company Stage
1 GSK1437173A GlaxoSmithKline Phase 3
2 live attenuated zoster vaccine Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co. Phase 3
3 Famciclovir and Aciclovir EMS Phase 3
4 NPC-06 Nobelpharma Phase 3
5 V212 Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC Phase 3
6 CRV-101 Vaccine Curevo Inc Phase 2
7 JCXH-105 Immorna Biotherapeutics, Inc. Phase 1
8 mRNA-1468 ModernaTX, Inc. Phase 2
9 Z-1018 Dynavax Technologies Corporation Phase 1
10 REC610 Jiangsu Rec-Biotechnology Co., Ltd. Phase 1

Continued...

KOLs across 8 MM market from the center of Excellence/ Public/ Private hospitals participated in the study. Insights around current treatment landscape, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, future treatment paradigm, and Unmet needs.

COUNTRY No. Of KOLs
USA 17
GERMANY 4
UK 4
SPAIN 3
FRANCE 2
ITALY 3
JAPAN 3
CHINA 4

Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast: Patient Based Forecast Model (MS. Excel Based Automated Dashboard)

Data Inputs with sourcing, Market Event, Product Event, Country specific Forecast Model, Market uptake and patient share uptake, Attribute Analysis, Analog Analysis, Disease burden, and pricing scenario, Summary, and Insights.Herpes Zoster Market Forecast

 

1.     Herpes Zoster (Shingles) – Key Findings Summary

         1.1.    Clinical findings
                     1.1.1. Disease overview
                     1.1.2. Therapeutic practices
                     1.1.3. Future outlook
         1.2.    Commercial findings
                     1.2.1. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) market scenario 2022
                     1.2.2. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) market scenario 2025
                     1.2.3. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) market scenario 2032

2. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Overview

         2.1.    Disease Introduction
         2.2.    Pathophysiology
         2.3.    Signs and Symptoms
         2.4.    Risk Factors
         2.5.    Etiology
         2.6.    Classification
         2.7.    Pathogenesis
         2.8.    Diagnosis
         2.9.    Complications
         2.10. Treatment Algorithm
                     2.10.1.    Treatment in US (guidelines)
                     2.10.2.    Treatment in EU-5 (guidelines)
                     2.10.3.    Treatment in Japan (guidelines)
                     2.10.4.    Treatment in China (guidelines)
         2.11. Treatment Goals for Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
         2.12. Referral Patterns
                     2.12.1.    Referral Scenario in US
                     2.12.2.    Referral Scenario in EU-5
                     2.12.3.    Referral Scenario in Japan
                     2.12.4.    Referral Scenario in China
         2.13. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Prognosis
         2.14. Healthcare burden
                     2.14.1.    Healthcare burden in US
                     2.14.2.    Healthcare burden in EU-5
                     2.14.3.    Healthcare burden in Japan
                     2.14.4.    Healthcare burden in China
         2.15.  Unmet Needs in Herpes Zoster (Shingles) management
         2.16.  Market Opportunity for Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
         2.17. KOL Comments on current and upcoming/expected treatment practices in Herpes Zoster (Shingles)

3.       Epidemiology

         3.1.    Epidemiology Overview
         3.2.    Epidemiology by Geography
                     3.2.1. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Epidemiology in US (2022-2032)
                             3.2.1.1.              Incidence of Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
                             3.2.1.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.1.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.1.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.2. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Epidemiology in EU-5 (2022-2032)
                             3.2.2.1.              Incidence of Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
                             3.2.2.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.2.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.2.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.3. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Epidemiology in Japan (2022-2032)
                             3.2.3.1.              Incidence of Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
                             3.2.3.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.3.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.3.4.              Epidemiology Trends
                     3.2.4. Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Epidemiology in China (2022-2032)
                             3.2.4.1.              Incidence of Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
                             3.2.4.2.              Diagnosed cases
                             3.2.4.3.              Treatable Patient Pool
                             3.2.4.4.              Epidemiology Trends
         3.3.    Epidemiology Trends (World-wide)

4.       Market Outlook

         4.1.    US Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.1.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.1.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.1.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.1.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.1.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.1.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.2.    UK Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.2.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.2.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.2.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.2.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.2.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.2.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.3.    France Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.3.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.3.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.3.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.3.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.3.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.3.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.4.    Germany Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.4.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.4.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.4.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.4.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.4.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.4.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.5.    Italy Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.5.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.5.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.5.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.5.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.5.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.5.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.6.    Spain Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.6.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.6.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.6.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.6.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.6.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.6.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.7.    Japan Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.7.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.7.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.7.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.7.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.7.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.7.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.8.    China Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market Forecast 2022-2032
                     4.8.1. Market Progression (Futuristic)
                     4.8.2. Market Trends and Expectations
                             4.8.2.1.              Worst case scenario
                             4.8.2.2.              Base Case Scenario
                             4.8.2.3.              Best Case Scenario
                     4.8.3. Drivers and Barriers
         4.9.    Key Expected Milestones (world-wide) Impacting the Market

5.       Competitive Landscape

         5.1.    Pipeline Therapies Overview
                     5.1.1. Phase III Therapies
                                      5.1.1.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.1.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.1.3.                     Approval Timeline
                                      5.1.1.4.                     Likelihood of approval
                                      5.1.1.5.                     Expected Product Positioning
                             5.1.1.2.              All other Phase III Therapies …..
                             5.1.1.3.              Attribute Analysis of Phase III molecules
                     5.1.2.  Phase II and Phase I/II Therapies
                                      5.1.2.1.                     Current Status
                                      5.1.2.2.                     Trial details, results
                                      5.1.2.3.                     Approval Timelines
                     5.1.3. List of active Pre-clinical Therapies
                                      5.1.3.1.                     Status in Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
                                      5.1.3.2.                     Company positioning
                             5.1.3.2.              All other pre-clinical therapies
                     5.1.4. List of Inactive/discontinued assets
                             5.1.4.1.              Business impact of discontinuations on current pipeline
                     5.1.5. Potential winners from Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Pipeline
                             5.1.5.1.              Potential Blockbusters across the pipeline

6.       Regulatory/Approval Scenario

         6.1.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in US
                     6.1.1. Policy Framework
                     6.1.2. Payer Expectations
         6.2.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in UK
                     6.2.1. Policy Framework
                     6.2.2. Payer Expectations
         6.3.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in France
                     6.3.1. Policy Framework
                     6.3.2. Payer Expectations
         6.4.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Germany
                     6.4.1. Policy Framework
                     6.4.2. Payer Expectations
         6.5.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Italy
                     6.5.1. Policy Framework
                     6.5.2. Payer Expectations
         6.6.    Regulatory/Approval Framework in Spain
                     6.6.1. Policy Framework
                     6.6.2. Payer Expectations
         6.7.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in Japan
                     6.7.1. Policy Framework
                     6.7.2. Payer Expectations
         6.8.       Regulatory/Approval Framework in China
                     6.8.1. Policy Framework
                     6.8.2. Payer Expectations

7.       Clinical Trial Assessment – Current and Future Paradigm

         7.1.    Distribution of Primary Endpoints across trials
         7.2.    Distribution of Secondary Endpoints across trials
         7.3.    Evolution and acceptance of surrogate endpoints
         7.4.    Key Investigator initiated trials
         7.5.    Attrition analysis
                     7.5.1. Suspended/Discontinued Assets
                     7.5.2. Failed Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.3. Terminated Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
                     7.5.4. Withdrawn Trials, Reasons and Business Impact
         7.6.    Trial enrollment scenario and challenges
         7.7.    Clinical Trial Guidance (across geographies)

8.       Thelansis Commentary

         8.1.    Key Unmet needs in Herpes Zoster (Shingles)
         8.2.    Possible Best-case Clinical Trial Strategies
         8.3.    Possible Best Case Targeted Product Profile (TPP)
         8.4.    Possible Best-case Market positioning strategies
         8.5.    Possible Best-case Market Access Strategies
         8.6.    Possible Best-case LCM Strategies
         8.7.    Overall View on Herpes Zoster (Shingles) Market in Dollar Value

9.       Report Methodology

         9.1.    Secondary research
         9.2.    Primary research
         9.3.    Data collation
         9.4.    Insight Generation

10.   About Thelansis

         10.1.    Our Capabilities
         10.2.    Our Services
         10.3.    Our Contacts
         10.4.    Disclaimer