Forecasting

FORECASTING

Market Forecasting

Forecasting is critical in commercializing the products, whether for new drug products or ongoing products.

New Product Forecasting, Thelansis perform this exercise before the launch of a new product in the market to evaluate year-on-year future consumption of drug products, primarily using different algorithms of a product attribute, market uptake, and current drug utilization, which facilitates the acceptance of the new product in the market vis a vis to the competitor’s product.

In-Market Product Forecasting: Thelansis conducts sales-based and Patient-based forecasts of drug products already being marketed. In this case, historical sales performance plays a significant role; however, any shift in future treatment paradigms and clinical practices are key factors that will help the forecasting team to project the sales forecasting of the existing product.

Thelansis has strong expertise in building patient-based market forecasting models, which enables our stakeholders to understand the current epidemiology scenario, potential patient pool, Market Analog, Product attribute, market uptake, patient share uptake, the annual cost of therapy, current drug utilization, prescription share, current clinical practice, and future treatment paradigm. Thelansis with a robust repository of 6,000+ Bio-pharma reports involving 1 Million man-hours catering to the top pharmaceuticals and biotech companies across the mature and emerging markets like the USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, China, Singapore, India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, KSA (Saudi Arabia) and UAE (United Arab Emirates), Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico.

 

Epidemiology Research

Epidemiology of a disease gives insight into the natural history and causes of disease and can provide evidence to help prevent disease occurrence. In an epidemiology research study, prevalence and incidence are among the most critical measures where incidence rates represent the influx of new disease cases among the susceptible population of a particular location. In contrast, prevalence measures a population’s disease burden at a specific time.

Sales-based forecast, Patient share uptake, the average cost of therapy, Annual Cost of Treatment, Epidemiology Research, Drug utilization study, Patient-based forecast model

Epidemiology

Epidemiology studies understanding the distribution of diseases & other health-related conditions within a population group. The purpose is to understand what risk factors are associated with a specific illness & how disease can be prevented in groups of individuals; due to the observational nature of epidemiology, and it cannot provide answers as to what caused a disease to a specific individual with similar or different comorbidity conditions.

The significance of any Epidemiology study is to estimate the frequency of a disease, find the potential causes of illness, understand the disease progression & stages, and validate the clinical characteristics of the disease condition. To achieve these goals, measures of disease such as incidence, prevalence, diagnosed, treated & death (mortality) are made within population groups.

Attribute Analysis

Determine the relative importance of different scientific and commercial indicators of an asset under development. Measure and compare the scientific indicators such as study endpoints, clinical outcomes, and asset potential in the future treatment paradigm. Construct a simulation model to determine the optimum treatment attributes and the significance compared to the currently available standard of care. Using the simulation model predicts market share among specialists for a drug with differing levels.

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Analogue Analysis

During New product launching, it is critical to predicting adoption as early and precisely as possible for demand planning and promotional resource allocation. The analog analysis is a tool/ technique where the probable adoption curve for a pipeline asset is determined—our in-house Dynamic Patient-Share tool allows a very accurate and straightforwardly predicting of the uptake. Selecting the canalognalogue and determining the patient flow/share becomes effortless.

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Disease Burden Analysis

Disease burden Analysis is the most comprehensive analysis. Any disease’s mortality, morbidity, and risk factors are analyzed at national and regional levels and translated into the overall cost burden on each patient level. We are examining trends based on historical and current data sets and making comparisons across populations to understand the changing health challenges.

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Cost-Effectiveness Modelling

The cost-effectiveness modeling starts with evaluating a product’s efficacy, safety, and quality to justify the cost. The cost of any therapy is consolidation overheads such as development cost, procurement cost, manufacturing cost, marketing and distribution cost, and the cost impact on the entire health care system, including the patient.

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